Biocompacting livestock accelerate drowning of tidal salt marshes with sea level rise

A global concern for coastal ecosystems is the predicted rise in sea-level which salt marshes must keep pace by increasing surface elevation sufficiently. Variables that control this change need to be identified predict adaptability of future rise. Many European are grazed livestock and these heavy grazers can biocompact soil, a process often underestimated studies assessing long-term survival marshes. We measured changes thirteen years field non-grazed With statistical model most important factors controlling rates were provided input mathematical study up 2100 under three Sea Level Rise sediment supply scenarios. found trampling grazing cattle significantly reduced annual gain from 11.9 mm yr -1 marsh 3.6 marsh. Next biocompaction livestock, precipitation deficit extreme drought resulted extra compaction. Our results showed presence had negative impact on grow vertically rising sea levels. Biocompaction total 42% if current linear SLR does not accelerate. For an accelerating high 109 cm +NAP 2100, 12% no longer outcompete level around 2050 onwards, compared The will slowly drown but lead significant vegetation composition yet. 195 both cannot with expected show regression plants typical low reduction aggravate effects may result highly inundation frequencies subsequent disappearance vegetation.